Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the country and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Each authors two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
